Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Ontario Loses 2,416 People to Other Provinces in Fourth Quarter 2014

I haven't looked at the quarterly demographic reports from the Ontario government lately, but the most recent report for the fourth quarter of 2014 is interesting.

Probably most pertinent is that Ontario is still losing people to other provinces even with the price of oil and the Canadian dollar cratering. Ontario lost 2,146 net in the quarter which surprisingly was an increase from 378 for the same quarter in 2013. Although it should be pointed out that in a province with a population over 13 million, that's still a small change. Perhaps in the first quarter there will be a change, although the employment situation in Ontario isn't particularly great right now.

The numbers on immigration and emigration were also interesting:
"Immigration to Ontario was 19,292 in the quarter, down 15% from the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario received 37.0% of all immigrants to Canada in the quarter, down from 38.0% in the same quarter of 2013. Over the last 12 months Ontario received 95,786 immigrants, down from 103,552 during the previous year.
There were 5,273 emigrants from Ontario in the quarter, similar to the same quarter of the previous year. Ontario accounted for 41.6% of all emigration from Canada in the quarter."
Immigration growth slowing is something one should pay attention to with regards to Ontario real estate prices. Immigration has been helping drive real estate prices higher; if that's slowing down, then there could be trouble for the housing market. It is also interesting that Ontario is only receiving immigrants roughly proportionately to its population size.
Finally, population growth was 0.9% year over year and actually below Canada's average:
"Over the last 12 months, Ontario’s population grew by 118,156 or 0.9%, lower than growth of 140,885 during the previous year. Among the provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan had the highest population growth rates (2.5% and 1.6% respectively). Canada’s population growth rate over the period was 1.0%."

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